Not Quite a Photo Finish

The election has been one of the strangest in recent memory and this observer could have never foreseen "the Don" making it past the first primary. Getting the GOP nomination? Never saw that in my wildest nightmares. Rather seeking a viable moderate candidate to unify political divides in the Republican party and the country as a whole, the pachyderms chose a figure who proved xenophobia, fear-mongering and hate can still be good political capital.

The papers in the UK have reported that the vote will be divided in swing states, but some of these states have a history of voting a particular way for several elections or have so few electoral college votes as to be nearly insignificant. (My apologies to Nevada and New Hampshire.)

Arizona is called a swing state by some. Seems to me that since its voted Republican as long as anyone can remember, what's the big mystery? It going to vote as it always has.

Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan, and Nevada have voted Democratic, again, as long as anyone can remember. Guess what they're going to do this time? (No extra points if you can answer this one.)

The real bloody contests are in just three states, Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina and here is where the election will be decided. Or not?

After plugging in some numbers and considering everything I said before, even if Trump wins all three, it still wouldn't put him over the edge. He will need voters in historically stable states to buck the traditions set over the last several elections to win. Much has been made of how fed up with the status quo Americans are, but is that level of disgust so high that a divisive figure like Donald Trump can do this?

Here's what the vote looks like if Trump does carry the fatal three swing states:

                                                              Source www.270towin.com


After much examination and four rum and cokes, here is my prediction of the final vote:

 

                                                          Source www.270towin.com



It would be a great comfort on Wednesday morning if Hillary Clinton would have beaten the Don soundly, proving that reason and intelligence are not wholly missing from the American political landscape. If, on the other hand, we allow such a comical figure to win, then only comics will benefit, as the ensuing four years of a President Trump (Gasp! Shudder.) are sure to be a rich source of gaffes, gropes, and confused policy.

 

 

 

The Obama Legacy?

Most Presidents aren't appreciated until they are gone. Harry Truman certainly wasn't viewed very highly by many observers when he left office. "To err is Truman" was a popular phrase of the era. Yet now, many modern historians view his as one of the White House's more capable administrations. So what will history make of the Obama years? 

He will likely never be mentioned in the same breath as Lincoln, or Washington...but he was no Pierce or Buchanan, either. President Obama has made mistakes and his list of detractors is a long one, but no more so than that of Bush '41, Bush '43, or Bill Clinton. What chief executive has ever navigated the shoals of power without at times scraping the keel a bit?

From the outset, Mr. Obama's was an unenviable task: inheriting not only one war, but two, Osama Bin Laden remained at large, and the economy was in a shambles. Fast forward about six years and the economy continues moving along the path of recovery, Bin Laden is just a bad memory and America finally has something approaching health care for all, though it remains to this day controversial. Unfortunately, the verdict on his response to the situation in Syria and Iraq is still out at the moment. 

Perhaps, his legacy will be more cultural than anything else. With his election, it is now accepted that any young person, regardless of race, or ethnicity, can become President and open themselves up to the kind of scorn and ridicule from the media once reserved only for rich white men. Additionally, America's hard-line stance toward Cuba that outlived its usefulness decades ago, finally ended. 

Another milestone was how a long-standing issue of human rights, in this case allowing openly gay service members in the military, was finally resolved.  Wasn't it always myopic to pretend that, so long as we asked who was and wasn't, that there couldn't possibly be anyone gay or lesbian in the ranks? Compelling everyone to lie about their sexuality in order to serve was the same as what generations of people living behind the Iron Curtain during the Cold War, who had to pay lip service to the Communist party to keep their homes, jobs, and food rations must have had to do to survive.  Think of it..."Yuri, are you a good Party member?" Yuri's replies, "Huh? Oh...ah...yeah, yeah! Lenin's our pal. Love that Stalin! Can I have my bread and potatoes now?"

At the end of the day, dropping the ban compelled the military to stop burying its head in the sand and allowed good people to finally tell the truth about who they were and to get on with their lives.

Fortunately, time is on Mr. Obama's side and when the voices of the bigots have died away, his legacy will likely improve, as truth demands we not only damn the failures, but that we praise the successes.

For Further Reading:

Announcing Cuba Embassy Deal, Obama Declares ‘New Chapter’

A Very Easy Decision': These Straight Couples Waited to Wed Until Gay Marriage Was Legal

Obama Certifies End of Military's Gay Ban

Narrowing the field: a Primer for the 2016 GOP Hopefuls.

     In the last 100 years, we have tended to elect governors and senators from politically important parts of the country…California, Texas, and New England. We have never elected a man coming strictly from the private sector with no political experience. For example, Ronald Reagan was a private citizen when he was became his party’s nominee in 1980, but he had been a Governor of California. So, as much as the media like to trot out the occasional successful businessman (think Herman Cain, Steve Forbes, Ross Perot, and Donald Trump) for their ten seconds of fame, these people don’t stand a chance. Sorry to Dr. Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina, Mark Everson and Donald Trump. The exit is THAT way, folks.

     We’ve only elected two men directly from the House of Representatives, one was the extraordinary Lincoln and the other, Garfield, was his party’s compromise candidate and even that was nearly 140 years ago. Goodbye, Rep. Peter King.

      Then there are the “tainted goods” candidates. People who have run before and couldn’t attract enough support to get their party’s nomination the first time around.

Ronald Reagan in 1976 is one extraordinary exception, the GOP selected a sitting President as it’s nominee, normally not a bad move, but in the aftermath of Watergate, no Republican could have won. After Jimmy Carter proved what a nice guy from a small state can do as President, we were glad to see Mr. Reagan’s return and the tainted good rule was ignored. 

     As for the current class of hopefuls, if they couldn’t get their party’s nomination the last time, they aren’t likely to have much success the second time around or, more loosely said, yesterday’ leftover hash, is seldom as good when reheated. No one of Reagan’s timber is present among the current field of hopefuls so farewell to Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee, John Kasich (withdrew before the primaries in 2000) and Jim Gilmore (withdrew before the first primary in 2008.) Sorry Guys.

     Lindsay Graham is viewed by many as too middle of the road to appeal to the God and Guns crowd. He comes from South Carolina and while he might actually carry that state in the primaries, he can’t survive much further than that. He does come with a few political skeletons in his closet. He has been faulted in the past for certain misleading points in previous campaigns. A lifelong bachelor, he once appeared with a nice lady and a small child in a campaign ad speaking of family values, as I recall. It later came out the woman was his sister and the child his nephew. Nothing wrong in that, but as there was no mention of exactly who they were, this was viewed by many as misleading. He also has come under fire for certain parts of his military service. There seem to be some question regarding claims he might have made of being a Gulf War veteran, though as a National Guardsman he never deployed overseas. Hmmm, no chance at success in the race but, again, perhaps a cabinet post in the administration of the nominee? Nope. He brings little of value to the table for any of the other candidates to take a chance on. 

     Rand Paul declined to run and endorsed his father Ron Paul. Of course, Ron Paul’s ideas were, shall we say, not mainstream. Paul the younger was between a rock and a hard place as they say…he didn’t have the courage to back someone more moderate but then who wants to vote for someone who wouldn’t vote for his dad? The baggage plus the fact he comes from a small and too influential state doesn’t help. So long Mr. Paul!

      Wisconsin’s governor Scott Walker has been mentioned, though I can’t see why. Walker’s political career in the cheese state has been contentious to say the least. If he has had to fight so hard to lead a state that gets hardly a look in the Electoral College, why are we wasting time even discussing him? Adios, Governor Walker! 

     Bobby Jindal seems a nice guy, but Louisiana isn’t a political powerhouse. Jindal has previously declined to run which tends not to encourage supporters and then endorsed Rick Perry for president in 2008. Sorry Bobby, maybe a cabinet post?

     While George Pataki and Chris Christie are popular governors of New York and New Jersey, respectively, neither have the ability to win the South and Texas as long as other candidates more palatable to the southern tastes like Bush, Cruz or Rubio are in the race.

And then there were three. Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio. Cruz and Rubio have a few things going against them both are junior senators and the GOP has made an issue of President Obama’s position as a junior senator in the past, so count on opponents in the GOP and Democratic party to make this an issue. Cruz is also little too far right to be acceptable to all echelons of the GOP. Cruz also has very close ties to the Bush family and served in W’s administration, so he can’t afford to play the nasty card with Jeb.

     Rubio’s youth is no asset. Like Kennedy, he has lots of glam appeal for the cameras, but has a very scant political resume’. Could he be another JFK in the offing? Possibly, but the odds are he's about as good as all the others would be with such limited experience. No Mr. Rubio's time is not now. Due to Florida law, he can’t run for President and seek re-election to his Senate seat. If he stays in the race and loses, look for him to run for Florida Governor next time around and to run again for president once he has built a resume’. As they used to say in vaudeville "Big round of applause ladies and gentlemen, he’ll be back later in the program."

     So in the end, barring any nasty skeletons in the closet, it’s Jeb Bush’s primary race to lose and as Hillary Clinton belongs in the Democrat’s own group of tainted candidates from past elections, she won’t be able to unify her party with anything like the kind of universal support she’ll need in the General Election. 

     On November 9^th, 2016, when the dust of the previous evening's activity has settled, a new catch phrase, “Bush 45,” will be added to the annals of American politics.

Mad Ads

During this morning's commute, I saw something that caught my eye. The absurd slogan was hard to miss, boldly emblazoned across a billboard promoting a fashion brand, was the motto "We are us."  Reading this particular mantra left me to ponder what other potential slogans must have been rejected in the selection process. Wasn't "I am me" good enough? Of course, "He is him," "She is her" and "They are them," were likely dismissed out of hand.  As I later made my morning coffee, I discovered a box of biscuits in in the office break area. A note on the container proudly proclaimed the company had a record of "25 Years of Quality Broken Biscuits." Obviously, some disscerning palate will accept only the finest damaged products. I was left questioning the collective mental ability of the modern marketing and advertising community. This is the best they can offer? Yes, the slogan was eye-catching. Mission accomplished, I suppose, but shouldn't a product or service be remembered by the consumer's for more than just being absurd?

Yes, kitschy slogans like "It's Miller Time!" or "Where's the Beef?" and ad gimmicks like Speedy the Alka Seltzer boy, or Santa Claus bob-sledding along in an electric razor are just distant memories. But, they were fun and cutting-edge for thier time. Today, we have CGI-produced talking cats and thousands of young people entering the job market with university credentials specifically communications and marketing, but the ads just aren't fun and memorable as they were years ago.

With society allegedly getting better; as we grow more savvy and technologically sophisticated, shouldn't the marketing and advertising people follow suit? It is unrealistic to expect more?

Oh Speedy, where are you when we need you most?

An Urgent Need For Rock-proof Vests

It's dangerous business being an IDF soldier these days. The hazards are almost unbearable for those brave, heavily-armed peacekeepers coming under fire daily. However, their most significant threat isn't from trained paramilitary radicals employing heavy weapons and rockets, as you might expect. No, it seems that the most deadly potential hazards to Israeli security forces are children armed with stones. Sketchy reports indicate, that three IDF tanks and a dozen armoured personnel carriers were wiped out last week when two seven-year-old militants hurling rocks and harsh language at the innocent and valient defenders of Israel.  One Israeli soldier is also believed to have received a boo-boo on his pinky finger during the devastating attack.

According to a spokesman with Israeli Military Headquarters, "As the well-armed commandos, one wearing a Sesame Street T-shirt, fled the scene, our agents observed them recieve aid and succour at a local sweets shop. This aide included a bottle of lemonade, a Snickers bar, and one packet of crisps,. The terrorists then made thier way to what we believe to be an elite terrorist training facility. F-16's of the Israeli Air Force initiated a proportionate response with a counter-strike, leveling the attacker's terrorist enclave, known locally as the Happy Bunny Day Care Centre in Gaza City. Israeli intelligence believes the facility may also have been the location of a secret laboratory developing a rock of mass destruction as well as a weapons cache of small stones and bits of hard dirt. Laughing maniacally, the spokesman said "We had no choice. The potential for bruises and hurt feelings to our innocent troops had to be eliminated. That will teach these bloodthirsty fiends not to mess with us."


For Further Reading:

Israeli Ministers Pass Bill Jailing Stone-throwers For 20 Years

Palestinian girl jailed for stone throwing in Israel freed early 

Israeli Police Attempt to Arrest Palestinian Preschoolers for Throwing Rocks

The only way to stop stone throwing is to end the occupation

The Coverage and Non-Coverage of Israel-Palestine

Happy Birthday, My Little Chickadee!

One of history’s greatest curmudgeons, William Claude Dukenfield, was born on this date in 1880 at Darby, Pennsylvania. Better known as W.C Fields, he appeared in Vaudeville, on Broadway with the Ziegfeld Follies, and made dozens of films, both silent and “talkies".  He was known for a caustic wit and is regarded as one of the world’s preeminent curmudgeons. R.I.P, W.C.

"I am free of all predjudices. I hate everyone equally." 

                                                                  -W.C. Fields.